Great Graphic: S&P and Euro Correlation Redux
We show this Great Graphic again because it shows a clear break of a pattern than many investors had come to rely on. With emerging market panic underway, and the long awaited correction in the...
View ArticleForeign Stocks: Performance Review
The Arab Gulf is hot, and we’re talking more than weather. The leading stocks listed on the western slice of the Persian Gulf (primary the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait) are sizzling. The...
View ArticleMSCI to Decide in June About Including China’s A-Shares
Two weeks ago, MSCI indicated that it was considering including China’s A-shares (yuan-denominated mainland shares) into its emerging market equity index. It plans on consulting with 2000-3000 fund...
View ArticleGreat Graphic: New DM-EM Equity Convergence
This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the MSCI equity index for the developed countries (orange line) and the emerging markets (white line). The charts begins at the start of last year. In...
View ArticleJust a Correction…or Something Darker for U.S. Equities?
The latest weakness in the US stock market raises a question: Is this the start of a bear market or just a correction in an ongoing bull market? For the moment, there’s a good case for arguing that the...
View ArticleLuck, Skill & Concentrated Portfolios
Thanks to yesterday’s annual meeting for Berkshire Hathaway, it’s the high season once again for admiring Warren Buffett’s stellar investing record. The praise is certainly justified. The company’s...
View ArticleSmall-Cap Breakdown?
Small- and micro-cap stocks have had a good run lately, but the bullish momentum is now fading. In the long run, finance theory tells us that these corners of the equity market will generate a risk...
View ArticleLooking for Bear Markets With a Hidden Markov Model
Would you know a bear market if you saw one? Hindsight suggests this is an easy task. The telltale signs are obvious… after the fact. From prices dropping below moving averages to negative rolling...
View ArticleRisk-Off Momentum Rolls On
Treasury yields fell again yesterday, with the benchmark 10-year rate slipping to 2.43% at Thursday’s close—marking a 13-month low. More of the same is on tap at the moment: Early trading on Friday...
View ArticleIs the U.S. Stock Market Rally Built on Solid Ground?
The S&P 500 briefly traded above 2000 yesterday for the first time. The all-time high inspired some analysts to announce (not necessarily for the first time) that the stock market was in bubble...
View Article